Toronto's mayoral contest is shaping up as a far tighter race than earlier polls suggested, with former councillor Brad Bradford closing to within six points of Mayor Olivia Chow, according to a new Mainstreet Research survey.

The poll, released by Mainstreet Research, puts Bradford at nearly 38 per cent support — up sharply from the 17 per cent he recorded in the firm's February 2026 snapshot, when that ballot also included former mayor John Tory. Chow remains in front, but her lead has narrowed considerably since the winter.

In a forced two-way matchup, the contest is even closer. Respondents who initially chose "someone else" were asked to pick between the two leading contenders, and Bradford came out ahead at 51.9 per cent to Chow's 48.1 per cent — a margin just outside the poll's margin of error, Mainstreet Research reported.

The Mayoral election contest in Toronto is shaping up to be more interesting than expected between the two main contenders

That quote came from Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research, who noted that Chow's support appears to have a hard ceiling.

While Olivia Chow leads by almost 6 and has a ceiling close to 49%, a near equal number of voters say they will definitely NOT vote for her. Bradford has a lower ceiling currently with just 45% saying they would definitely vote for him or consider it, but only a quarter of residents say they will definitely NOT vote for him. That differential may change in time but it should be concerning to the Mayor.

Wrong-track numbers and approval ratings weigh on incumbent

The survey points to broader headwinds for the mayor. More than 60 per cent of respondents said the City of Toronto is on the wrong track, while only 23.2 per cent said it is heading in the right direction.

Chow's personal approval rating sits at 41 per cent, with more than 55 per cent of residents saying they disapprove of her performance, according to the poll.

"With the top issues that residents cited and the approvals at this level, the Mayor will have to work hard for her re-election chances," Maggi concluded.

Traffic, affordability and safety top voters' minds

The survey also asked residents which issues matter most to them. Traffic and congestion led the list at 27.3 per cent, followed by affordability at 25.8 per cent and crime and safety at 23.5 per cent.

The proposed Island Airport expansion remains unpopular, with 54.8 per cent of voters opposed and only 8.7 per cent strongly supportive of the project.

Opinion was more divided on the resale of FIFA event tickets for profit. While a majority view the practice unfavourably, Mainstreet Research found 31.9 per cent of residents said they somewhat support the ticket resale scheme.

Mainstreet Research, founded in 2010, describes itself as one of Canada's top public opinion and market research firms, with a track record of forecasting election results in Canada and the United States.